Clinton can win in Florida, Ohio, & Penn in GE

Quinnipiac has a new PA poll out for Clinton vs Obama, but they also poll the GE match-ups in the states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

* Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent

* Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent

* Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

[One thing to note here (for this large poll sample), in highlighting Clinton leading the states of PA & OH, and not Obama: the leads by Clinton in PA & OH are outside the MOE, while the leads of Obama in those two states are within the MOE. In FL, Clinton's lead is within the MOE, while Obama trails McCain in FL outside the MOE.]

One of the things I've argued all along is that Clinton, in creating a narrative of standing up for Florida to be counted, has opened up the potential that she could win there over McCain. She already has a demographic advantage, with a heavy Latino voting population, migrated voters from NY and other NE locations, older women voters, and the main issue being economics.

Obama's anemic numbers to date in Florida have pretty much taken it off the table for his chances (and who knows where he makes it up). It'd take a serious investment for his campaign to compete there, and most importantly, he's not been sending a message to Florida voters that he wants their votes counted. The secret key to how Clinton gets the nomination aside for the moment, a win by Clinton over McCain seems entirely possible in Florida.

Ohio looks even better for Clinton vs McCain. The reason why, appears to be the economy. It's an issue on which Clinton has much more association, than either McCain or Obama, both of whom are associated with the Iraq war instead-- McCain as a warmonger and Obama as a voice of reason. But like most polls lately, this one shows that the economy is becoming the single most important issue by around a majority. While Iraq and Healthcare remain as issues, its not even close to the importance of the economy in the minds of voters.

This is a deep poll, it'd be worth it to look into the cross-tabs. It included over 5,500 polled in FL, OH, and PN. They also found this:
"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate."



Display:


Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 4)

The comments by Quinnipiac Sr. pollster Peter Brown says it all:
"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964."

No matter how much those who are in love with Obama want to keep pretending it doesn't exist-

"RACE" will be the ultimate factor that will destroy Obama in November.

Even among us Latinos. If you look at the last two Latino polls released for FL,NJ,NM,CO,CA in the last 30 days done by Hispanic Polling orgs, Obama is doing very poorly for a democrat running against McCain. He is doing even worst than Kerry did in '04. He was barely ahead of McCain in CA,CO by about 5 points only but was trailing McCain by double digits among Latinos in FL,NJ,NM,MO.

John Kerry Never trailed Bush among Hispanics in any of this Buena Vis surveys done in 04. Gore also never trailed in these surveys.

And both still lost.

With Clinton, she was beating McCain by a landslide in All 6 states.

How in heavens would you expect Obama to actually win in November when he is literally & figuratively losing among Whites, Latinos, and Asians.

Many Latino leaders are shaking their head in amazement. A common theme you hear today is that,

" Only white liberals & Black people have any illusions that Obama can somehow beat John McCain in  November. The rest of white,brown,yellow america knows how ugly November will bring."

All I will say is if Obama thus lose big in November, you can kiss the Senate goodbye. His expected poor showing among GE white voters will destroy Shaheen, Udal, & the rest of these democrats who happen to be in swing Red & Purple states.

I'm a minority just like Congressman Emmanuel Cleaver. I agree 100% with the views of courageous people who speak out like African-American congressman Cleaver of Missouri.

He frankly stated yesterday that, " Most liberal whites who are supporting Obama today have this strong rationale that if Obama wins the Presidency, they can rid themselves of all the Guilt of Past Racism & Slavery, and this would be the ultimate pardon for white people. It would give a sense that america has moved forward from its ugly past of bigotry. Any rationale of Obama's qualifications or experiences is simply ignored by the most precious reward of racial atonement".

No offense but .....

The rest of us are trying to win the Presidency, while some segments of our party have other bottled up guilty agendas.


by latinfighter on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:10:10 AM EST

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 1)

I don't think its mostly about race for most. There are some whites & latinos that won't vote for Obama because he's black, but there are also blacks and guilty liberals that are voting for Obama because he's black.  


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:14:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary looking like she may get Edwards endorse (2.00 / 0)

Obama's contempt for poverty issue, healthcare
should be an issue for everybody, but I especially would hope that black people would care about it.

Elizabeth and John Edwards were appalled by his cavalier dismissal of poverty as an important issue for his campaign and by the lack of universality in his healthcare plan. Thats why he bew the Edwards nomination.

He may be shaping up as a new, hip, Dem. version of Clarence Thomas. Seriously.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:28:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Elisabeth Edwards... (2.00 / 0)

refuted that article today on Morning Joe.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:38:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary looking like she may get Edwards endor (2.00 / 0)

I do notice that Hillary makes more of an effort to talk about poverty and working class in this country, than Obama who talks in more ethereal terms.  

I wish Edwards would endorse Hillary.  An endorsement of Obama would be a waste for Edwards because Obama would not offer him anything important in his White House.

I know alot of people said that Edwards would make a good Attorney General.  Edwards made a better President, but he was marginalized out of the picture.

As VP for Hillary, he could work on the issues important to him (poverty, housing, corporate greed), and he would have more of a voice than with Obama.  Edwards would humanize Hillary.


by stefystef on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:39:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Enough with the misinformation campaign (1.00 / 0)

You have an established pattern of posting known falsehoods about the Obama campaign. What's the deal? Personally, I don't agree with Jerome's assessment in this diary, but it's not false. It's just his particular interpretation of a limited set of data.

Your comments are something very different from Jerome's. I've looked at your comment history, and it consists entirely of vicious attacks and blatant lies. At this point I'm fairly certain that you're just a Republican attack dog, because no Democratic supporter of either candidate could in good conscience engage in the type of behavior that I've witnessed from you.


by noop on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary (none / 0)

And Hillary's shaping up to be America's Eva Peron, I mean hey the parallels are just as striking as you Thomas comparison.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:59:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary (none / 0)

Argentina still loves Eva.


by stefystef on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 04:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree that it's not about race ... (2.00 / 0)

if you look at the crosstabs here for the general election matchups w/ McCain, Obama does as well as Clinton among 'white men' in FL; does a little worse than Clinton among 'white men' in Ohio; and does a little better than Clinton among 'white men' in PA.  The difference is among 'white women' in all 3 states, where Clinton does better than Obama when matched against McCain.  

Additionally, in all 3 states, Obama does as well as Clinton -- or better -- among men in general and among independents.  So, the entire reason Clinton performs statistically better against McCain in GE matchups is b/c of the better performance among Democratic women -- who, IMHO, are very likely to return to the Democartic fold in November if Obama is the nominee.


by silver spring on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:38:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (none / 0)

This is an excellent point. Hard to see Dem women not voting for their nominee and instead choosing the anti-choice, pro-war candidate. And as always one must add the caveat that at this early date it is hard to take too seriously any polling in re November. Remember there was the poll earlier this week (Pew? Rasmussen? can't remember) that had both repubs and dems nationally saying that Obama was the stronger candidate. I think that both Clinton and Obama could/will wipe the floor with McCain but that the dynamics of each race would be very different depending on the nominee. In a McCain/Obama race you would have generational themes, patriotism themes, and a stronger fight about Iraq (not just withdrawal but the entire premise of the mission). In a McCain/Clinton campaign you would have more clearly dilineated economic arguments, and unfortunately a return of some of the 90's era controversies courtesy of the VRWC. This is one of the main reasons why I initially gravitated towards Obama.


by wasder on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:59:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (2.00 / 1)

What a surprise that the VRWC turned you against Clinton.

This is a GE poll, not Dem women, all women. Who voted for Bush in 2004 (despite the points you mention) thus losing Kerry the election. A Democrat cannot win the general election unless he wins women.


by souvarine on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:10:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (none / 0)

First of all the VRWC did not turn me against Clinton as I am not against Clinton at all. As I have said many times I have voted for her twice in the senate and voted for her husband twice as president. I have tremendous respect for her and think she would be a fine president. The point I was making is that the idea of returning to some of those battles was a tiresome one for me and left me open as a democrat to pitches from other candidacies. This in itself would not have been enough to sway me to another candidate except that I really liked (and continue to like) the candidacy of Barack Obama.

To your second point, are you absolutely sure that the majority of women voted for Bush in 2004? It seems unlikely to me though I am sure it would be easy to figure out on Google. Considering I am sure that men voted for Bush, I don't see how the race could have been so close if women had also gone in the majority to Bush.


by wasder on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (none / 0)

From the now.org website:

"Between women and men overall, a seven point difference exists in their voting -- 51 percent of women voted for John Kerry, while 44 percent of men favored the Democratic candidate. Conversely, men preferred George W. Bush by 55 to 48 percent over women."

So there was a 7% win for Kerry among women, not nearly as much as Gore won women by in 2000. So your point is well taken in that the dem nominee can't win without winning women significantly, but to say that they voted for Bush in 2004 is false.


by wasder on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (2.00 / 1)

I should have been more clear, I did not intend to imply that Bush won women overall but rather that a Democrat must win women by a significant margin to win the election. Kerry was weaker among women than Democratic candidates usually are.

Obama is even weaker than Kerry, and it is a real problem for his general election strategy. Improving turnout among independents and young people, as his campaign is describing his GE mobilization strategy, does not make up his deficit.


by souvarine on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:34:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it really depends on how this primary ends... (none / 0)

(and i anticipate it will end badly).  but barack has been very successful in illinois with women voters.  one would hope that he would duplicate that in a general election.

don't you think the sheer presence of hillary in the contest is skewing the results there?  until the nominee is decided, it's hard to compare poll results with kerry (given that the 2004 primary was decided in march).  but it could be that women will break late for barack...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it really depends on how this primary ends... (2.00 / 1)

I'm sure Clinton has an effect on Barack's performance among women, just as he effects her performance among African Americans, but the difference is AAs are not swing voters. Clinton will have to give Obama's base a reason to vote, Obama has to give Clinton's base a reason to vote for him.

I also note that John McCain was more successful in 2004 winning women against a Democrat than Obama was against Republican Alan Keyes.

In any case Obama is not going to win enough women based on his pro-choice, anti-war credentials, he has to be able to show that he has a deeper understanding of women's issues. His campaign is signaling that it will instead try to win on independent men and younger voters.


by souvarine on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:41:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it really depends on how this primary ends... (2.00 / 1)

My impression is that Obama would have to work harder to retain disaffected women voters than most in that position...for a number of reasons.  The tenor of his campaign, for a number of us, seems unnecessarily imbued with a "type of sexism" (excuse the phrase--I don't know how else to describe what a number of women I know have described--perhaps, haughtiness regarding Hillary e.g., culminating in the recent ill-advised "Hillary, quit" sub-campaign.)  Who knows what may finally happen as to any return to the fold in that instance.  But, it is obvious, from a number of polls corroborating this disaffection at a much higher rate than usual, that an Obama primary victory might come with lots of costs to the party and a steep hurdle in even bringing certain women voters along (let alone unifying the country.) It may be a harder task than some hope.


by christinep on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree that it's not about race ... (none / 0)

What Jerome fails to mention .. and as some have already mentioned .. is that it's way too early for this stuff to matter .. he's pro-Clinton .. so of course he'll spin it as a positive for her .. but then the important thing he doesn't mention is that Dukakis once had an 18 point lead over Boosh I in the polls .. and we know the end result of that one


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 3)

I'd like to see some numbers to back up the "guilty liberals" voting for him because he's black. I doubt there are any non-anecdotal metrics there, but it is sure a great way to downplay any white support that Obama does get -- or, to put it another way -- the support Obama gets that has NOTHING to do with race.

It's also pretty weak to base electability arguments on racism. If Hillary is the best candidate because of her positions, that's fantastic. But let's look at Kerry at the same time. Or Bush in '00.

Face it, polls NOW, when McCain is untouched, and both he and Hillary are pouring on Obama, surely the polls will favor anyone but Obama. I have no more evidence to back this assessment up than you do to back up that this poll shows anything of use for the general election.

But I digress. These posts don't exist to show how Obama is weak, but to show how Obama supportrs are weak.

While the previous poster likes Cleaver's quote, "Most liberal whites who are supporting Obama today have this strong rationale that if Obama wins the Presidency, they can rid themselves of all the Guilt of Past Racism & Slavery, and this would be the ultimate pardon for white people...."

That's a load of crap. For people upset over the "typical white person" line, it's even more crap. Unprovable crap. I don't think any serious observer of race in America -- hell, any serious observer of the human condition thinks election Obama will rid the world of racism. That's about as bad as saying "everyone who votes for Hillary is a racist." It's no more true or provable.

But what it is is part and parcel of what I see here every day. Constant attempts to denegrate Obama supporters as:

a) Stupid Robots/Sheeple aswoon over large vocabulary words
b) Stupid people unable to see that Obama is a plagerising, anti-American racist who is too liberal and a closet Republican
c) Blacks voting for blacks, or being threatened by blacks to vote for blacks (The Jesse Jackson/Lewis argument
or
d) Guilty whites who care more about guilty "agendas" than winning elections.

I'm sure there are going to be lots of responses citing mythic Daily Kos posters who say Hillary Supporters are worse, somehow, and that excuses this, but Jerome -- yet again, I expect more from you.

Maybe Obama's supporters of varying races support him for the same reasons you support Hillary Clinton. Not some "electability" metric -- after all, Clinton has plenty of electibility issues that seem to go unnoticed here every day. -- but because they truly believe he's the best person for the job?

(And voting for "electability" did SO WELL in 04, didn't it? Maybe at a time of crisis, Americans would like to vote for someone based on what they'd do the day after the election, not merely what they do leading up to it.)

Maybe if you expect readers to respect this site and respect other posters, (and respect you), maybe you should offer that same respect to those you'd likely agree again once this primary is over? Without it, it's not a surprise how often Obama supporters are treated like crud in these comments. It comes from the top.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:44:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 0)

There is no evidence for that type of smear.
its just an excuse that losers use to justify their loses.

Of course they will never admit that HRC has run a horrible campaign.  They will never admit that her huge negatives will keep her from winning the GE.  They will never admit that the Big O is a better candidate and a better choice.  

Instead they smear and throw out excuse after excuse.  
Its too bad, but don't worry.  They will be back with us and perhaps MyDD will again be a home for progressives.


by gil on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 1)

"there are also blacks and guilty liberals that are voting for Obama because he's black."

And there also a lot women and false progressives voting for Hillary simply becuase she is a woman.  Others think that by simply byvirtue of her marriage to Bill Clinton, she will manage to resurrect the U.S. economy of the 1990s.  They care not whether she served on the Walmart Board of Directors while its General Counsel called unions "blood sucking parasites," that she was always pro-NAFTA and that she voted for the greatest foreign policy debacle in the nation's history and still can't admit she was wrong about it when so many others were right.  Then when she runs a crappy, glass-jawed top-down campaign based on her inevitability and begins to lose contest after contest, they think she is being picked on and the other guy is just an empty suit rather than a real representative of discontent with the party establishment and pro-war, pro-corporate stance of the Clintons.

Honestly, I am still scratching my head as to how you and Kos wrote a book together.  


by Daddy Warbucks on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:48:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (2.00 / 2)

Hyper-partisanship and logic makes for poor bedfellows.

That's what made 06 so nice. There weren't personalities involved, it was just the goal. It was logical and reasoned. The GOP played the old game, and lost.

Now, the Dems are playing the old game here, ranking states and overthinking-by-half the politics, doing all but hiring wizards to analyze crow entrails to see what the electorate would vote for over McCain.

But the goals -- ending the war, smarter economics, health care, education -- those are still the same, and still the same between Hillary and Obama.

It's the personalities that are messing this up. It's the personality battles that could ultimately cost us in November. Not the issues. We win on the issues in a major landslide.

But we're playing the GOP game on the GOP field these days, playing up race vs. gender, upper class vs. lower class, etc. We're playing the wedges, rather than the glue.

It could stop. Hell, I bet it could stop in a week if there was a concerted effort by Kos and Jerome and others to put the focus back on the issues, individual candidates be damned.

We could be as powerful as GOP special-interest groups. We raise the same kind of money, drive the same kind of stories. We could have our heated discussions on the issues, and have both Obama and Clinton pander to US about their health care plans...

... but we'd have to push the personalities -- and our own personalities -- to the side.

The lesson of 06 (and of 1910-1912) is that if you let the issues drive the election, the Democrats will win.

You get too clever with the polls, you lose.

Maybe that's the scariest thing about Jerome's post.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:55:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That was troll rated???<nt> (none / 0)


by fladem on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How in Heavens can Obama win (none / 0)

I detect a real sense of menace in your post as well as all your previous posts. In case you missed. Let me repeat it to you. So it is drilled inside you. Obama is half white, half black.


McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:33:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

His mother was the significant influence (2.00 / 1)

in his life.. His father was a bigamist, who abandoned his various families, several times.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:39:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His mother was the significant influence (2.00 / 0)

and his father's actions reflect on Barack how...?

Barack has lived his life with a great deal of dignity and class.  I would hope Democrats, regardless of which primary candidate they support, would recognize that.


by Tad on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:49:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Being black, let me tell of the old rule... (2.00 / 2)

...Concerning blackness.

If you have just one drop of black blood, then you're black.


by andrewalker08 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:41:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Latinos (2.00 / 1)

Shame on you, latinfighter.

I do not support Obama because of guilt or any racialist agenda.

And for you, and others, to continue to insist that Latinos won't vote for him is to implicitly endorse bigotry.

The only way for race to not be an issue is for people to not allow it to be an issue.  

Divided we fall, and as we saw with the Immigration debate, we will all lose if the Republicans maintain the White House.

Let's challenge all communities to throw out racialist arguments.


by Tad on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:46:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Latinos (none / 0)

Thats exactly true. If you make it into race it just becomes pointless.

You tell me whow there will be a ever a hispanic president if you create this bad blood, if blacks dont vote for him/them???

I'm white. bye the way.


McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Latinos (2.00 / 0)

Yes Kathy,

If you pretend that it does not exist, it still won't disappear.

That's the problem with many white liberals.

You do not want to make RACE an issue with Obama.

But it is an Issue whether you like it or not.

You cannot change that overnight.

Now if you want to make history without regard to what reality is, that's your prerogative.

But do not pretend or play blind that your idol Barack Obama has an ISSUE with a significant enough number of latinos,whites & asians.

Pretending it does not exist wont change the outcome in November.


by latinfighter on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Latinos (none / 0)

Why should he have problems with Whites? Why?
He is half white. He does better with white males than HRC.
She only got this far cause 56% of democratic primaries are women and I say that as a White women myself. He is much suprerior to her. He deserves cause he won it

Let me tell you. Mr Hispanic. There will never be a Hispanic president if you create bad blood between black and hispanic. The only that wins is the bigot votes.

The blacks will vote for the white candidate and in return the latins will vote the white candidate. No group wins.

Despite the fact that Obama is a child of a African immigrant, of first generation. Despite the fact that he will show greater sensitivity to Hispanics. Despite the fact that he has wlays got you guys back covered.

You have repeatedly voted against him. The shame is on you.


McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:22:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are wrong latinfighter (none / 0)

Gallup just did a survey that showed that in a head to head with McCain, Clinton gets 58% of the latino vote and Obama gets 54%.  The only problem is the white reagan democrats but that he can make up for that loss with AA's and younger voters.  Maybe you are the one that doesn't think that latinos would vote for blacks.


by Hopeful08 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are wrong latinfighter (none / 0)

True Hopeful08. He just hates Obama for some reason.
He is saying that Latinos will not vote for Obama.
I'm saying he is wrong.
McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Latinos (2.00 / 1)

Tad,

You just made my case.

You are calling for us to get together, join hands, & go past race.

Unfortunately, reality is what wins elections. And the reality is, poll after poll have shown that many latinos & white reagan democrats will very likely abandon Obama.

I did not make it up. Nor did you or anyone.

That's reality.

As for Latinos, where did I claim that All latinos will not support Obama. My claim is MANY if not a significant enough number of Latinos will vote for McCain over Obama.

Again, who does not want a Racial Free, Color Free society? But many of us accept the real world.

We always try to make things better. But that will NOT happen overnight in 2008.

You are asking us to go with HOPE.

You Hope Latinos do vote for Obama.

You Hope White Reagan Democrats vote for Obama.

You Hope Asians come together & vote for Obama.

That's A Lot of Hope that stands on Very Shaky Ground ! Positive thinking alone will not change the minds of millions of people.

And No Fantastic speech would simply erase 3,4, 5 generations of attitudes of people.

That's reality. Whether you accept it or not.


by latinfighter on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:05:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The answer (2.00 / 0)

"Obama's anemic numbers to date in Florida have pretty much taken it off the table for his chances (and who knows where he makes it up)."

Ohio (where he is currently leading in that poll) would be enough to win.  Ohio + CO would give him a little cushion.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:12:29 AM EST

Re: The answer (2.00 / 1)

I think that MO, CO, OH, & VA, all places where Obama supporters have said he can win, will pretty much be taken off the table with a single direct mail piece by the NRA on Obama's gun position while a Chicago pol.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:15:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (2.00 / 1)

I think your wrong about that.  There are a lot more pressing issues this election + Obama is going to have plenty of money to define his own position on guns during the campaign.  Since the Supreme Court is almost certain to resolve the contours of Second Amendment before the GE, he'll have a built in reason to articulate a moderate stance on guns.  

Also, I would note that Clinton's views on guns are identical to Obama's.  By your logic, shouldn't that kill her as well?


by HSTruman on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (2.00 / 0)

Perhaps - lord knows 2004 taught me to not overestimate the voting savvy of the American public - but who would win if we chose nominees on the basis of speculation of what an unanswered attack would do to them in swing states?


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:19:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (2.00 / 0)

You mean to say, you HOPE that it will kill him in those states.  Right?


by Cycloptichorn on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:23:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This misunderstands (2.00 / 1)

where Obama's strength is in these states.  His ability to put these states in play is based on his strength in the suburbs/exurbs, places where the gun issue does not cut, not in the lower income rural areas were the gun issue matters.

I don't think the gun issue matters at all for Obama, because he isn't winning those votes to  begin with.  


by fladem on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Fear (none / 0)

It sounds like Jerome supports Clinton because he is afraid of what the right wing noise machine will say about to Obama.

Yikes.  Its that type of thinking that led to HRC giving Bush a blank check on Iraq.
She was afraid of Rush Limbaugh so her fear guided her vote.

When fear guides you, you make bad choices.
Haven't you learned anything?


by gil on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One of the lessons (none / 0)

from 2000 is that the gun issue cuts in some groups that would otherwise vote Democratic.

Interestingly, though, I think the Gun Lobby will remember Bill raising the gun issue in 1996 against Dole.  As a result, I am not sure Hillary has much advantage here.


by fladem on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guns not jobs or healthcare? (none / 0)

So you are saying Jerome that guns matter more than jobs to these people?


by Hopeful08 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guns not jobs or healthcare? (2.00 / 0)

As someone who comes from that background, you better believe it matters more than jobs.  God, guns and gays you know...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (2.00 / 0)

You can take MO off your list for Obama:

Missouri: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll              Date    Sample    McCain (R)  Obama (D) Und    Spread
Rasmussen    03/24 - 03/24    500 LV    53    38    9    McCain +15.0
SurveyUSA    03/14 - 03/16    536 RV    53    39    9    McCain +14.0
SurveyUSA    02/26 - 02/28    632 RV    48    42    10    McCain +6.0
Rasmussen    02/11 - 02/11    500 LV    42    40    18    McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA    01/11 - 01/13    562 RV    51    40    9    McCain +11.0
SurveyUSA    12/13 - 12/15    547 RV    44    47    9    Obama +3.0


"Do you know the difference between a War Story and a Fairy Tale?"
by RedstateLib on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (1.00 / 0)

Did you not see that in this poll Obama is getting spanked in Ohio?

I think with the debacle in Michigan, you can also add it to the R column if Obama is the nominee.


by cmugirl90 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:22:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (2.00 / 0)

A one point lead is getting spanked?  What's McCain doing to Clinton in WA and OR then?


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The answer (none / 0)

He's not getting spanked in Ohio.  Look at the numbers.  1 point


by Tad on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:59:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

PA Polls (none / 0)

PPP: Obama Takes Narrow Lead in PA Quinnipiac: Hillary Ahead by only Nine Points in PA
by xtrarich on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:12:38 AM EST

According to PPP Penn is a tossup (none / 0)

Obama overtakes Clinton in PA
Raleigh, N.C. - Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in
Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
It's a remarkable turn around from PPP's last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a
half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was
released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama's
major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national
polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.
"In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a
continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party's chances of
defeating John McCain this fall," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
"The major movement in Obama's direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that
Democrats in that state think it's time to wrap it up."
Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his
customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.
Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a
50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15
points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:15:33 AM EST

Treat that (none / 0)

with a grain of salt, maybe two grains. That poll measures a cumulative 28-point swing, and a swing of that size is usually created by some significant external event. Given that we haven't had any of those, really, I'm skeptical about this result.

We're seeing a strengthening of Obama in PA polls, sure, and the burst in registrations may be affecting the Democratic voter universe in ways we can't reliably measure yet. It's also too early to create a reliable turnout model.

But overall, it's safe to assume that today, Hillary still leads in PA by somewhere between five and ten points, maybe twelve.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is Good News... (2.00 / 1)

...for ALL Democrats, not just for Clinton supporters.  McCain is at his peak, as far as I'm concerned, yet polling like this indicates to me that he's nonetheless very vulnerable to either of our remaining candidates.  

If Obama can hold PA and win Ohio, then Florida isn't likely to be decisive.  Also, as many polls have shown that Obama makes some states that Clinton isn't competative in competative, such as Colorado and North and South Dakota.  He also does a better job of holding certain blue states, like Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington state than Clinton.

All that being said, I'm thrilled to see Senator Clinton doing as well as these polls indicate she's doing.  If she manages to win the nomination, then I'm glad to have some empirical proof that she'll make just as strong a GE candidate as I've always imagined.  In my view, this just confirms that we have two strong candidates.  


by HSTruman on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:16:07 AM EST

Thanks Jerome for showing how competitive Obama is (2.00 / 0)

Thank you Jerome for finally posting some numbers here on MyDD that show Obama is not only competitive but, in fact, ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania and and Ohio.

That should really take the sting out of a lot of the criticism of Obama's electoral vote chances, which these polls show to be nonsense, and it must've been tough for you to do considering your support of Clinton.


by Addison on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:19:28 AM EST

Obama voter here but get real (none / 0)

Obama is ahead of McCain by rounding error margins in Ohio and Penn in these polls, with a smaller percentage of the voters committed to him than Hillary can claim, and nothing to brag about.

The main grounds for optimism here is the large share of the undecideds. Obama continues to show that he can win votes as people get to know him, state by state, and nationally. Well, we have still six full months before Election Day. Plenty of time for him to win more friends and influence more people.

The Pastor Disaster was encouraging. After months of Obama rising in the polls unrelentingly, Faux News and hate-talk radio unleashed a massive attack on Barack, claiming that he was "angry" (which people didn't like about Edwards, according to reports), unpatriotic, and obviously BLACK. They threw their strongest stuff at Obama, he survived it, and has now resumed his rise in the polls.

Still, it's going to be a long and hard campaign. I wish Obama would run his ads on Youngstown, Steubenville, and Wheeling TV stations; their signals all run deep into Penn, so that's a good excuse to do it. Hey, I'd run them on Cincinatti TV and reach SE Indiana, using that primary as my cover story. But the truth is, he needs to work hard to get his numbers up in Ohio.

Worrying about the states Obama needs to carry, remember the crucial two: No Repub has ever been elected President without carrying Ohio. We must deny them Ohio. And Missouri has voted with the winner for a century (with one amusing exception, '56). If Democrats don't win Ohio and Missouri but somehow manage to win the election, it would be completely unprecedented.


by Woody on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just one thing of note.... (2.00 / 0)

Obama has yet to spend any time campaigning in Florida. In Pennsylvania and Ohio, he's still ahead of McCain.

And everywhere that Obama has spent time, his numbers have always risen, and fast. I think to discount Obama's chances in Florida is premature.


by Yalin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:22:21 AM EST

Spending time makes up for lack of real care? (2.00 / 0)

What just blows me awas is how controlled the Obama dialogue with the public has been. Obviously, there are huge holes in his healthcare plan, that should be fodder for a lot of articles comparing him and Clinton, but - so far, there have been very few.

I think that Obama must be either trying to play both sides hopes and is actually a moderate, pretending to be a conservative pretending to be a moderate, or he really is EVIL.

Either way, I would rather stick with a known quantity, the risk of Obama being a right winger in disguise is just too high.

I don't know what people see in him. Vague promises don't pay the bills.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:33:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spending time makes up for lack of real care? (2.00 / 1)

1) What huge holes are there in his healthcare plan?

2) How could you possibly even consider Obama as an unknown quantity or even a right winger in disguise? Seriously?

Have you even looked at his voting record in the Illinois State Senate and the US Senate?

They're so progressive it brings tears to the eyes.


by Yalin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:36:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spending time makes up for lack of real care? (2.00 / 0)

I'm not sure if bringing up candidates that don't pay bills really strengthens your argument.


by herenow on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:51:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spending time makes up for lack of real care? (none / 0)

I'm sorry, as a public health policy professional I can't help but reply here. I'm not particularly invested in either Clinton or Obama, but I am invested in expanded healthcare coverage which, according to their plans, both Clinton and Obama will work for.

Neither candidate has an ideal health care plan. Both plans have real strengths and real weaknesses.

The major strength of Clinton's health care plan is the universal mandate; we are never going to achieve universal insurance coverage without one. But the major failing of her plan is that even with the premium-lowering mechanisms she propses (like moving to a completely paperless system), the premiums are most likely still going to be too high for lower-income people who are not quite poor enough to qualify for Medicaid. These people will need to have their premiums subsidized by A LOT if they are going to buy into the public coverage Hillary is proposing. And a mandate does not guarantee that universal coverage will actually be achieved (most likely not if the coverage is expensive) because people will simply not comply.

Obama's plan's major failing is that he doesn't have a mandate for adults, though he does have one for children. But the general consensus on his pooled re-insurance program is that it will likely lower premiums more than Hillary's plan, making it possible for more people to afford coverage. But again, that doesn't necessarily mean that people will buy it.

In my opinion, the best plan would be a combination of the two; Obama's re-insurance pool program combined with Hillary's mandate and other cost-saving proposals.


by parkagirl on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spending time makes up for lack of real care? (none / 0)

"And a mandate does not guarantee that universal coverage will actually be achieved (most likely not if the coverage is expensive) because people will simply not comply."

Realistically nothing short of a single payer plan would actually guarantee universal coverage, which is not politically feasible now, but in countries with a mandate and mixed public/private system they do achieve 98% covered. The mandate would go very far in creating an improved base of coverage, and over time could become very widespread.

The political argument goes that if the middle class were to face a mandate to buy insurance they would organize to force effective reforms onto the overall system, and we would finally be able to get effective regulation of an otherwise out of control situation.

The political will to reform the system doesn't exist when such a large percentage of people are willing to hang onto the devil they know, as long as they have the escape hatch of not having to be part of the system. The mandate gets everyone involved in health care.


by 07rescue on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Biased Diary (2.00 / 0)

Clinton people clutching at straws. Obama has hardly been in Florida ever. Yet he has holding firm against McCain.


McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:23:05 AM EST

Re: Biased Diary (none / 0)

Losing by nine points is called "holding firm?"

How do you account for Clinton leading McCain despite not campaigning in the state?


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 05:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looking at the crosstabs ... (2.00 / 1)

in all 3 states in the general election matchups w/ McCain, Obama is doing as well as or better than Clinton among men and independents (and better among Republicans in Pennsylvania).  

The reason Clinton beats McCain by a better margin than Obama is solely because a relatively larger portion of 'Democrats' and 'women' are willing to cross-over & vote for McCain when it's a McCain-Obama matchup.  The big question is how much of this cross-over is real and how much is just showing up in the polls now when the Dem. nomination is still undecided and a significant number of Hillary's hard-core Democratic women supporters are saying that they will "vote for Hillary over McCain but McCain over Obama".  

IMHO, I think the vast, vast majority of these Democratic women will come back to the Democratic fold in November. (If these polls showed a difference in how men and/or independents voted in terms of McCain-Hillary/McCain-Obama matchups, I would be more concerned for Obama.)


by silver spring on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:24:24 AM EST

Re: Looking at the crosstabs ... (2.00 / 2)

Yes, a lot of women seem to have forgotten that McCain (and his party, and his potential Supreme Court nominees) is anti-choice. What will they do when they remember? Will they stay where these crosstabs show them, voting for the GOP? I doubt it.

Obama is leading among the hard-to-get demographics for a Democrat. That's more valuable.


by Addison on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:29:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Looking at the crosstabs ... (1.00 / 0)

perhaps we'll remember that Obama voted AGAINST the Alito filibuster and planned to vote for Roberts until an aide suggested it would come back to haunt him.

Women wont vote for Obama based on the SCOTUS dogwhistle this year, just sayin'.


ginaswo
by ginaswo on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:50:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe not... (none / 0)

...but they will vote on the SCOTUS bullhorn that McCain will be using at every single conservative campaign stop.


by Addison on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:59:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Looking at the crosstabs ... (none / 0)

If you're going to make arguments like this, you could at least get your facts right.

Obama voted against both Alito and Roberts and supported the Alito filibuster.  He did make the (accurate observation) that the filibuster wouldn't work and that we need to do a better job actually winning elections in order to stop nominations like Alito's, but he voted to filibuster.  

Here's the roll call vote, per the Times, on the Alito Filibuster:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/30/politi cs/politicsspecial1/30wire-rollcall.html ?_r=1&oref=slogin


by HSTruman on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:02:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Looking at the crosstabs ... (none / 0)

A lot of women, incredibly, are anti-choice.  They embrace the whole barefoot and subservient mindset, as God intended.  I was raised by these women and the men who kept them down, and they won't budge when abortion comes up...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:10:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Looking at the crosstabs ... (2.00 / 1)

Please don't take women for granted.  McCain stands as much chance as winning a significant amount of women voters as Obama.  This is the real risk of an Obama nomination.  Both Obama and McCain will appeal to Independents and a particular white male demographic--when the argument becomes mano a mano in debate, I would suggest that McCain has the upper hand in terms of the classic "strength."  As I recall, the perception of "strong president," is one of the top two or three measures that pollster have always looked at to determine where unaffiliated voters move.


by christinep on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice Headline there! (2.00 / 0)

Wouldn't a more honest headline (you know one not shilling for Hill) state what you said, but add that Obama leads in OH and Penn as well, or are we at the point where unless Obama leads by more than Hillary, it doesn't count? Because if were at that point I think someone should point out that Obama can win California, Hillary on the other hand is basically where Obama's at in Ohio and Penn.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:25:00 AM EST

What the hell? (2.00 / 0)

A Dem winning OH and PA means a general election victory.  FL may or may not be out of reach for Obama, but he does have the cash to compete there, and is a lot stronger in other poachable states such as CO, NV, and IA.

More importantly, the numbers for the presumptive Dem nominee (something that'll exist within a month or two) are going to look a lot better than this.  Do you even remember how McCain looked before 2/5?

Jeebus man, get a grip...


by Ramo on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:26:23 AM EST

Re: What the hell? (none / 0)

Sometimes, throwing cash at a situation is not always the answer, especially in FL.


by stefystef on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:30:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the hell? (1.00 / 0)

if Obama continues to block or in Dean's words fails to 'agree' to a revote in MI and FLA, Dems wont win MI or FLA

Obama can campaign there all thru November and will not win in FLA if he gets the nom by disenfranchising the state


ginaswo
by ginaswo on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:52:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the hell? (none / 0)

He isn't, and cannot, block anything.


by Whash on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton can win in Florida, Ohio, & Penn (2.00 / 0)

The biggest thing is that 20% of Dems (or, presumably, 40% of Clinton primary supporters...) defect to McW.  C'mon, people, WTF?  Is the future of the SCOTUS and the country worth the petulant hissy fit?


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:29:16 AM EST

Re: Clinton can win in F (none / 0)

"Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

lol

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday continues to show a tight race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Hillary Clinton attracts 45% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44% (see recent daily results).


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:30:47 AM EST

Re: Clinton can win in Flo (none / 0)

"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State. Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."

More than a third of voters in the three states think Obama's race is an advantage, more than twice the number who think it is a disadvantage. By contrast, roughly a quarter of voters say Clinton's gender is an advantage, and about the same number think it is a disadvantage.

"Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race has helped his candidacy finds some support among the electorate," said Brown.

- quinnipiac


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:32:44 AM EST

Hey, don't write off anybody.. (1.00 / 0)

A surprising number of older black people I have spoken to support Hillary.

And many educated white people I know also support Hillary. Highly educated people.

Obama's appeal I think is partly the fact that people project their hopes onto him, and he avoids contradicting them. But it wont hold up under serious scrutiny, which is what the Edwards's did, ask him some hard questions that he has been deftly avoiding.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:37:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey, don't write off anybody.. (none / 0)

Older Black people, particularly older Black women are virtually the only Black people who do support her.  I'm not sure why that's surprising to you.


by Whash on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:41:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey, don't write off anybody.. (2.00 / 1)

Also... you've been corrected on that story about the Edwards now a couple of times today.  No need to keep right on repeating something false.


by Whash on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We Haven't Even Started... (2.00 / 1)

Campaigning against McCain.  As someone else said above, the idea that it's all downhill from here for us is wrong in my opinion.  

McCain's at his peak- he's just won a cakewalk of a nomination, there are no negative ads being run against him, indies are fondly remembering the 'maverick' McCain not the Bush-lite McCain of today, the negative statements by Hillary and Obama about him aren't really getting much play because the focus in on our contest, and there's a lot of negativity and sniping going on within our party.

McCain's numbers will go down, and our's will go up.  

And I'll repeat what I said in another thread about this poll- these three states are not the only swing states this election.  They're not going to be the only swing states in the future.  The fact that other pollsters see this and are actively looking at the entire electoral map instead of focusing on these three narrow traditional battleground states says a lot about the pollsters in question.  Quinnipiac tends to have relatively accurate polls, but they're pretty conservative and the things they choose to poll show that.


by Whash on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:34:51 AM EST

Obama can win too. (2.00 / 0)

Of course, these number don't show that Obama CAN'T win; just that he's currently a little behind McBush in one poll.

Polls many months before an election tell nothing and change many times.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:36:13 AM EST

Re: Obama can win too. (2.00 / 1)

Read it again; Obama is AHEAD in PA and OH which is all that he'd need.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:39:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

mccain will win florida, regardless... (2.00 / 1)

since both ted strickland and ed rendell have both admitted that the democratic nominee will win their states, regardless of who wins the nomination, this poll's significance comes down to florida.

the problem is that democrats won't win florida.

jim davis had a ~20 percentage point advantage over crist in the spring of 2006, yet crist won (despite the so-called democratic wave in 2006).  and the reasons why republicans are winning florida comes down to mechanics: republicans are organized everywhere, and democrats are not.  they are especially inept in the all-critical i-4 corridor.

nor can it be a surprise that hillary does better against mccain than barack in florida, given the fact that he did not campaign there, has built no organization in the state, and is relatively unknown compared to the other two.  regardless, florida is not going to be in the democratic column in 2008.  republicans have all the structural advantages in florida: the governor, a real party organization, people who will knock on doors and make phone calls, a united party, and a presidential candidate that dovetails nicely with the state's electorate.

that may frustrate democrats outside the state who look at the polls every cycle and see possibility, but until the democratic party in florida ends the divisions from the 90s, builds a real party structure outside the major urban areas, and recruits local grassroots activists, this isn't going to change...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:37:53 AM EST

I wonder (none / 0)

if the mortgage/property issue in Florida may give us an opening.

By this I mean the ability to tie McCain to the economy may mean we could still win.  If this happened (so I am envisioning a Dem win +4 to +6 nationally) I do think the right campagin could win.

But there are better targets for Dems, and places that will need defending where Kerry did not need to defend.  


by fladem on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it does give us an opening... (none / 0)

but i still want to emphasize that we need the organizational infrastructure to take advantage of it.  i love the self-organizing aspect of the obama campaign, and have a lot of faith that this will be folded into the state party infrastructure if obama wins the presidency, but right now there is still a lot of resistance...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:42:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton can win in Florida, (1.00 / 0)

FL is a huge problem for Obama.
I know that many many of his supporters thought it was amusing to put out snarky memos about beauty contests ect.
Statements about their votes equaling 0.
But if Obama is the contender in the GE every one of those snarky statements will be played up by the GOP in FL.
I said it at the time and I will say it now. Hillary was smart and thanked the voters for taking the time to vote for her.
There might come a day when the Obama campaign will wish it had at least showed good manners to those who voted for him instead of using them as a butt of jokes.
by J Rae on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:39:15 AM EST

clinton can't win in florida... (none / 0)

unless she's running for re-election.  since she won't commit the resources needed to organize and win the state, there is absolutely no reason to assume that she will be competitive (unless you are simply engaging in wishful thinking)...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:41:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: clinton can't win in florida... (none / 0)

she will commit resources there because she has said it from the beginning of the campaign that she can win florida


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well... (none / 0)

since i sat in a room with other florida party leaders where it was explained in frank and precise terms that winning florida required $25M and 500 field organizers starting in april to win the state, where no one disagreed -- we can say with absolute certainty that your comment is not true.

now if you have a miraculous way for winning florida -- i realize my assessment is based more on getting down to the dirty details -- i (and every other florida democrat) would love to hear it.

winning florida by democrats is as likely as winning california is by republicans.  both are possible.  neither is likely...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:54:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well... (none / 0)

Ummm......Hispanics are swing voters....and CA has a huge number of hispanics. Central  CA is RED very very red up and down the state.

If the hispanic voters swing to McCain I wouldn't bet on CA being safe.


by J Rae on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's fine... (none / 0)

republicans winning california is much more likely  than democrats winning florida is.  that better?


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: clinton can't win in florida... (none / 0)

When did she state she would not campaign in FL if she was the nominee?

And BTW, I was basically stating that the Obama campaign shot itself in both feet over FL.

But maybe Obama himself said something different from his campaign after FL voted? If you have a link showing him thanking the people of FL and being gracious it would be interesting to see.


by J Rae on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:52:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

huh? (none / 0)

hillary is the ultimate tarmac candidate.  that's what she does.  i would never argue that hillary won't campaign there, only that she won't devote the resources needed to win the state.

nor am i arguing that barack can win that state, either.  no democrat can right now.  i understand that it looks good when you live outside the state and you have no idea about the organization of the democratic party in the state (or the political dynamics involved to win).  i'm trying to introduce a little reality here, because we are counting on florida to win the white house, we've lost...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton can win in Florida, (2.00 / 0