I don't even like to imagine an Obama nomination, but since the numbers are still headed in that direction, on the VP talk, I've got a few thoughts, if its a GE composed of Obama vs McCain.
I do believe the chatter that the Obama's detest everything about the Clinton's and though its the best ticket, it won't happen unless its forced upon Obama by the SD's. It may be, especially if, by August, Obama is on the ropes. With that in mind, here's the options that are being talked about for Obama.
Gov Kaine, or Jim Webb, from Virginia. This seems a long shot with no results. First off, in regards to Webb, the guy hates campaigning, he doesn't seem to enjoy showing up at campaign events and besides, its the economy, and not Iraq, as the main issue. Kaine, while popular, is no Warner, in VA. I doubt either of them would help Obama even compete in VA, which has been pretty much taken off the map recently, with double-digit leads by McCain in the state.
Gov Sebelius, from Kansas. If Warner had ran, I think he would have chosen Sebelius for his running mate early on, and they would have ran as a ticket against Clinton. The reasoning behind Sebelius, for Obama, is that she can play the role of the woman, without being Clinton. That might be a big thing, but other than that, she won't deliver Kansas. Plus, there's something there that the media will binge over the couch-- Obama choosing a older white woman from Kansas, where his now deceased mother is from originally.
Gov Richardson, from New Mexico. This is the one that makes some sense. Obama's only regional strength at the moment, in regards to the '00 and '04 maps, is in the southwest. NV, NM, and CO. Richardson could help some in those states, theoretically. But this ticket of racial change is going to make those white battleground states of PA and OH even more problematic for Obama.
The best VP tickets are those that unite the party, or otherwise bring on new constituencies. Its rare that a VP adds any regional strength, as people vote for the President, top of the ticket, no matter where they reside. Ford would have been strongest choosing Reagan in '76. Carter had have been strongest choosing Kennedy in '80. Reagan was the strongest having chosen Bush in '80. One party united, and the other stayed divided. Mondale and Dukakis probably would still have lost, but its hard to argue they wouldn't have done better with Hart in '84 and Jackson in '88. Since then, we really haven't had a competitive primary. Since then, neither party has really had a primary thats been competitive, delegate wise, after about half the primary nominating schedule.
There's also the opening for McCain, if Obama shuns Clinton, that McCain chooses a woman for a running mate. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is too old and AK Gov Palin is too young; but I could imagine Kay Hutchinson running with McCain, very effectively.
As we roll on in the next remaining contests, we expect a split. Clinton winning WV, KY, and PR; Obama winning OR, MT & SD. MI & FL will be settled, and Clinton will lead in the popular vote.
The hatred of Clinton runs deep among the Obama supporters, but by August, I think it will have settled some, and unless Obama gets much stronger as a candidate on his own, he'll need Clinton more than ever. In the recent LA Times poll, Clinton crushes both Obama and McCain over whom is best on economic issue. In regards to the economy, there's no better brand than the name Clinton in US politics. Its three months away, and things can change, but thats the only ticket that makes sense right now.
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