to claim that NO ONE in Michigan would be pro Obama

to the extent popular matters at all, it's only for super delegates to consider as a measure of moral claim to the nomination because it reflects the people's will.  that's why the notion of including michigan is intellectually dishonest (unless of course you think the results reflect the actual sentiment of michigan voters; iinwhich case you're not intellectually dishonest, but simply unintelligent).

With cheerleaders for the Dem party like  "I'm currently pessimistic on our chances" Jerome, who needs the right nutwing commentators?  Geez Jerome, if last night showed anything, it's that with Dem turnout we will have big senate and house majorities AND the W.H.  I'm sorry your candidate is losing the primary.  But GET OVER IT and start cheerleading for our side.  Even Hillary has changed her tune and says Obama can win!

If you look at the state by state polling, Obama already has a good chance of winning against McCain, and it will only get better.  Even in the states he is expected to lose, he polls really close, and that is before any post nomination bump.  No doubt the nation wide GOTV drive that they've kicked off is focusing hard on those areas where they can flip the competitive states and make this thing a blow-out.

I really don't understand the doomsayers that predict we will lose in November.  We have a bunch of factors working in our favor this cycle, not least of which is the public is sick of republican corruption and incompetence.  This is the year we make the neocons a historical footnote!

we don't matter,  its the superdelegates and eventually people like Jerome are going to have to realize the supers don't count FL and MI just because they pretend they do.

by her calculations. And it will change things how?

I find it interesting that Florida is the 4th largest state in the nation, yet finishes 8th in votes cast in the democratic primary.

Michigan, 8th largest.  Finishes 18th in votes cast.

Michigan and Florida were two of only four states (the others being Arizona and Utah) that had higher republican turnout than democratic.  

Yeah, those contests were legit. Count em!!!

Making them as relevant to the selection of the Democratic nominee as a show of hands in a Detroit bar room.

But there's no sign that the superdelegates ever bought into Hillary's "popular vote" nonsense in the first place. If the party wanted the popular vote to decide things, they would have written the rules that way.

'Cos it's simply cheating, that's why... you can't count invalid elections that everyone knew were invalid at the time...

What I don't understand is how people think primary season popular vote is a fair measure. Texas had twice as many people vote in their primary than New York becuase New York had an closed primary (Dems only) and Texas was open. Not to mention caucuses where states like Minnesota have approximately one tenth the voters as other relative states with primaries. It just doesn't make sense to use this metric.

WV is a.m. radio country....Hillary won the hillbilly white boy vote....bfd.

extrapolating from that win that white guys in general won't vote for O is simply untrue.

But don't expect Jerome to care about that. ;-)

And Jerome COMPLETELY IGNORES MS-01, which is as big a victory for Obama as it was for Childers.

Republicans (and some Democrats), in a overwhelmingly Republican district, in an overwhelmingly Republican state voted for a Democrat who the GOP tied to Obama and Wright with upwards of $2 million spent.

And, as we all know, the Democrat won. Obama didn't hurt -- Obama may have actually HELPED. That is more important for General Election issues -- at least legislatively -- than anything in West Virginia.

But from Jerome in his post-game -- nary a peep. Nary a peep about how the Superdelegates seem to be of one mind now, too.

The whole point of the popular vote argument is that it's supposed to be a better measure of the people's will than the delegate count. That's questionable as it is, but it becomes completely ludicrous when Michigan is added in with zero votes for Obama. How can any measure of popular will be taken seriously if it's claiming that no one in Michigan supports Obama (especially considering that Obama leads Clinton in polls there)?

The candidates campaigned to maximize their delegates, not the popular vote.  Otherwise, Obama would have spent more than 1.5 days in California, one imagines, and focused less attention on those caucuses which yielded only delegates but not a popular vote figure.

He worked hard.  He played by the rules.

The Atlanta Braves lead the National League in Team Batting Average with a .283 average. The Braves also lead the NL in team ERA, with a 3.54 ERA. Sadly, they are in fourth place in the division, and tied for 9th in the league.

The Cincinnati Reds' pitchers have the most strikeouts in the NL with 314. Sadly, the Red are in last place in their division and tied for 13th in the National League.

We can do this on and on... We can analyze alternative statistics for all kinds of contests. The New York Giants won the superbowl, but their numbers were nowhere near as good as the other teams in the playoffs.

* * * IT'S A DELEGATE RACE FOLKS!!! * * *

Exactly right.  It a little like a football team claiming victory in the Superbowl because they have a few more total offensive yards (scads of which awarded via penalties).  

At the end of the 4th quarter, the team with a 14 point lead is STILL going to win the game...

I think races in MS and LA proved that Obama is gonna destroy McCain this fall.

On what basis are they so pessimistic?  Obama has:

- Run a very smart primary, building an unmatched ground game and massive small donor network.  He has proved he can win a tough campaign.

- He polls very well against McCain and is currently favored to win by electionprojection.org.

- Furthermore, even in the states that he currently loses, he often polls very close and could yet pull out wins.

- He has only just pivoted to GE mode, so his numbers are likely to climb.

- His perceived negatives (i.e. Wright) have not had much effect in the primary, and airing them now has partially inoculated the public to their future use.

- The wind is REALLY blowing against the Republicans this cycle (recent special elections prove that).

- McCain has numerous negatives (perceived as too old, tied to Bush, 100 years in Iraq, etc).

- We have the enthusiasm and money advantage this time round.

- The massive GOTV effort is already started, and will keep going until November.

Given all of that... how can anyone be pessimistic about our chances in November.  McCain is toast.

I beg to differ. Obama is clearly not winning white working class or hispanic voters that are swing voters that vote either Democrat or Republican, depending on whom they like. The African-American and upper profession class voters are reliably Democratic voters. Hillary might lose the working class and/or hispanics to McCain, but Obama clearly will.  She has a better chance, regardless of the primary math.  

if you take a small sample from almost any state Obama has won (North Carolina or Connecticut or Alabama) that represented the same demos as West Virginia as a whole, you might find that Clinton won them by the same margin.

I'm an Obama supporter, but I don't buy this at all.  Obama 'gave' WV to Hillary?  Really, we have enough valid arguments in favor of Obama - no need to make stuff up and needlessly antagonize Hillary supporters.  WV was perfect for Hillary's demographic focus, she worked harder there, and she won handily.  It doesn't prove that she's a better candidate in the general, but it does show that Obama needs to work a lot harder at getting his message out to those voters in the months to come.

What about his lack of interest in trying to win the votes of the people of West Virginia?  There were no other contests competing for his time.  I know he spent twice as much money as Hillary but he himself hardly even tried to appeal to the voters..

And in cricket, there are only two bases and you can choose to run when you hit the ball.  Only, we're playing baseball, and the way to play the game suddenly didn't change in the 5th inning....

The influence of the demographics you just denigrated is pretty strong.  Bill Clinton NEVER won the white vote... ever!  He had to win the black vote...  And Hillary only splits the women vote overall...  Of course you don't mention independents or true republican crossovers.

I'm not going to denigrate your demographics like you did mine, however, Obama won the pledged delegates... He played the game differently than Hillary did, but she should have known how to play the game.  The clintons were the upstart candidates in 1992.  Has it been so long that they forgot how to play?

I'm sorry you don't like caucuses.  They've been around for a hundred years.  I'm sorry that you don't like young voters--they will soon outnumber baby boomers, so maybe you should learn to like them.  They are the future of the party.  African Americans... they've been through a lot... and hearing day after day how they don't matter... well, we can see why they aren't happy with your candidate.

First of all, West Virginia is a socio-economic disaster and, unfortunately, those people voted on name recgnition ...not on the issues. Which is a shame because WV is 49th in lowest per capita income, third in the percentages of houses without complete plumbing, 50th in the percentage of residents with at least 16 years of education, and over 20 % of the population is illiterate!

You would think that they would make a profound attempt to inform themselves of the candidates and issues to try and better their dire situation.

They are the posters of "low information" voters.  

They are NOT reflective of the nation as a whole, hence, the landslide.

Thank God in the GE we wont have so much influence by "blacks" and "kids"

Who else is sick of these people and their voting?

Its hard to take all this 48-state hand-wringing seriously when the same people openly belittle fellow Americans.

are overdue.  I can't wait to ask them WHY they think Obama is a Muslim....WHO told them that?  WHY do they think he hates America?  WHO told them that?  WHY do they think he shares Rev. Wright's views?  WHO told them that?

Yes, he's black.......and that's okay, too.  Let's have a discussion with this hypothetical white "working class" male.....I consider myself one of those.  I'm not worried.  

When that guy realizes that he's been duped and manipulated by the right wing propaganda machine, you can count on him to turn on it like a rabid dog.

Please tell us in advance exactly what is wrong with Oregon before the primary there next week.

for winning 30 other states.

So two states, one of them among the smallest in the country, decide the nomination now?

How do you KNOW that he won't win in the GE?  I say that Hillary has no shot int he GE.  What makes you more right than me, or me more right than you?

Nothing... it's all based on fantasy... No one will know who wins or not until the general election is actually held.  Period!